Joanna Cheah

Joanna Cheah joined Jefferies in Jan-2024 as an ASEAN analyst. She currently covers Vietnam Banks and Consumer in addition to ASEAN thematics. She has 14 years of experience in Equities out of which 12 years was within Equity Research. Joanna holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and received a BCom in Economics and Finance from the University of Melbourne.

What I am Known For

  • Thematic research that are timely and differentiated across ASEAN
  • Sector knowledge and understanding structural shifts as well as identifying each companies’ competitive advantage and where there is room to surprise the market

How I am Different

  • ASEAN Themes and Tactics: Is your power grid at risk? – looking at beneficiaries of burgeoning data centres from a bolts and nuts angle
  • ASEAN Themes and Tactics: Riding the comeback – exploring angles that ASEAN could benefit from China stimulus measures

Key Research Highlights

Jingjue Pei

Jingjue Pei joined Jefferies HK in 2023 with two years of equity research experience following China consumer and policy research background from her internship with the United Nations and the Economist. Jingjue received a Master of Economics from National University of Singapore and a Bachelor of Finance from Hunan University. She also passed all levels of the CFA program and ACCA program.

What I am Known For

  • An approach to stock ratings focusing on FCF and cashflow.
  • A focus on data tracking, growth drivers, earnings quality, financial health and consumer behavior changes.

How I am Different

  • Laopu (6181 HK, BUY)
  • Bullish on high-end heritage gold market and Laopu’s ability to maintain its brand image and penetrate into more HNWIs in China.

Key Research Highlights

Upcoming Corporate & Strategic Access

  • Conferences: YUMC, Prada, CTF, Budweiser, Miniso at Jefferies Asia Forum (Mar 2024), CTF (May 2024), Samsonite (Jul 2024), CRB (Aug 2024) Hengan (Aug 2024), Miniso (Sept 2024),
  • Expert events: Post National GW expert call series on shopping mall, gold & jewelry, Macau gaming, restaurants etc. (Oct 2024), China Consumer Day: Updates before China Food and Drinks Fair (Oct 2024), Pop toy industry update call (Sept 2024)

James Grzinic

What I am Known For

  • In-depth coverage of consumer discretionary names for thirty years. Over this time I have spanned a variety of subsectors and witnessed various cycles across regions. This broader breadth of coverage has better equipped to help investors find sources of outperformance.

How I am Different

  • Over the past year I have maintained a cautious view of the luxury sector given a more circumspect opinion of the boost to luxury demand from the Chinese cluster. This in contrast with a more positive view of discretionary names with stronger value attractions to consumers and with a greater European bias to their operations (especially NXT LN and ITX SM).

Key Research Highlights

Sonali Salgaonkar

Sonali Salgaonkar works as a Senior Vice President with Jefferies India, with ~15 years cumulative industry work-experience . Her educational qualifications are BE (Computer Engineer) and MBA (Finance) and CFA (USA) – Level 1

What I am Known For

  • Sonali leads India Midcap & Smallcap franchise, with 20 stocks under active coverage across ~8 sectors. Cross Sector views across Multiple Sectors – Research encompassing EMS / Contract Manufacturing , Electricals, Cables & Wires, Consumer Durables, Appliances, Adhesives, Plastic Pipes, Building Materials, Graphite Electrodes. Sonali also works on Midcap Strategy reports. A balanced approach to stock ratings with well-timed calls and thorough analysis on companies. A focus on growth drivers, earnings quality, FCF and accounting. Long-term sector knowledge and historical modeling In-depth industry knowledge; Good corporate access and channel checks

How I am Different

  • Strong analyst calls in India SMID / Industrials – Key being Amber Enterprises (AMBER IN), Polycab (POLYCAB IN) , Supreme Industries (SI IN), Kaynes (KAYNES IN) and Blue Star (BLSTR IN). Timely Thematic notes on India EMS industry / PLI scheme deep dive, India Capex Beneficiaries, Summer beneficiaries. Consistent channel checks in India Appliances, Durables and Building Materials regularly. Interesting reports on Indian EMS players (PLIs), Plastic Pipes, Electricals, Durables and Building Products (Channel checks, Thematic work and Annual Report Analysis). Sonali covers a wide spectrum of sectors, including niche ones such as Graphite Electrodes

Key Research Highlights

Zoey Zong

Zoey Zong joined Jefferies in July 2020 with more than 3 years of equity research experience following China Energy & Petrochemicals at Bank of China International and China Utilities, Industrials and Small & Mid-Caps at Huatai International.

What I am Known For

  • Equity research experience across China Internet, China Energy & Petrochemicals, China Utilities and Industrials.
  • Timely updates on industry and company changes.
  • Building and updating models and databases across different sectors.
  • Key member of the team ranked top 3 in Institutional Investor 2023 All-Asia Research Survey (Internet category).

How I am Different

  • Alibaba (BABA US / 9988 HK, BUY)
    We believe BABA has laid out a clear roadmap with solid execution. For TTG, we expect the gap in YoY growth in GMV and CMR to narrow down in Sep quarter. Potential in incremental young users and those in lower tier cities from synergies with Weixin Payment are to be unlocked. Efficiency improvement in AIDC is expected, along with cloud benefits from solid AI demand. We expect investment in 88VIP for TTG and fundamentals to improve for AIDC and All others.
  • Tencent (700 HK, BUY)
    We believe high quality growth story is intact while factoring in the latest trends across segments. For VAS, we expect YoY re-acceleration in gaming revenue while factoring in the latest trends on social networking. For online advertising, growth continues to benefit from ad tech and video accounts while factoring in base effect on ecommerce ad, trends in mobile networks and brand ad. For FBS, slower growth is expected due to macro environment.

Research Highlights

Upcoming Corporate & Strategic Access

  • Expert Events: Jef U China Expert Day: Internet (4 Nov 2024)
  • Expert Events: Jef U China Internet Expert Calls (12 – 13 Nov 2024)
  • Conferences: Jefferies Asia Internet Week (29 Aug – 4 Sep 2024)

Vivek Maheshwari

Vivek Maheshwari covers the India Consumer & Internet sectors. He has a rich experience of over 16 years across Jefferies and CLSA, and has been consistently top-rated. Prior to CLSA, he worked for Ernst & Young and ITC Limited. He is a qualified Chartered Accountant.

Internet

What I am Known For

  • Vivek authors the ‘Internet Strategy’ series, which looks at cross sectoral themes across Internet categories in India.
  • Covers Zomato and Nykaa, the key listed consumer internet names.
  • Strong sector knowledge and good connection with industry experts, which allows to form a more informed view of the sector.
  • Superior focus on thematic and analytical research, covering a range of structural trends.

How I am Different

  • Authored a series of notes on Zomato and quick commerce highlighting the rising competion in this fast growing industry
  • Written deep-dive reports on unlisted names including Urban Company, Shiprocket, Zepto, Magicpin, bOAT, etc.
  • Organised multiple conferences/tours which saw participation from new-age internet companies with diverse business models

Key Research Highlights

Upcoming Corporate & Strategic Access

  • BespokeTrip: Global Consumer Clients Trip in Delhi and Mumbai (May 2024)
  • NDRs: FSN Ecommerce Management in USA (June 2024). Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail in USA. Zomato in USA.
  • Bus Tours: Retail Tour in Delhi (Sep 2024). Feet on street tour in Delhi (Sep 2024). Consumer Internet tour in Delhi (Sep 2024). Rural Tour in Delhi (Sep 2024). Consumption tour in Varanasi, Lucknow (Feb 2024).

Consumer Discretionary

What I am Known For

  • Vivek covers consumer disretionary stocks across categories including QSR, retail and paints.
  • Strong sector knowledge and good connection with industry experts, which allows to form a more informed view of the sector.
  • Superior focus on thematic and analytical research, covering a range of structural trends.
  • Vivek Maheshwari covers 11 consumer staples stocks, with an aggregate market cap of c.US$270bn. Focus on thematic notes, which aims to provide insights into the ‘real’ India, capturing cross-sectoral stories & on-ground anecdotes, through market & site visits, expert interactions, etc.

How I am Different

  • Authored multiple detailed pieces on rising competition in the paint industry re-iterating our high-conviction SELL on Asian Paints which underperformed Nifty by ~23% CYTD
  • Authored multiple detailed thematic pieces on consumer-related topics such as wedding, IPL, etc.
  • Authored candid and detailed interview pieces with CEOs under our ‘Getting Close & Personal’ series (Jubilant Foodworks, Nykaa)
  • Authored the ‘Getting Close & Personal’ series, wherein interact with FMCG CEOs to better understand their thought process, business strategy and their career trajectory.
  • Authored multiple detailed thematic pieces on consumer-related topics such as wedding, IPL, etc.

Key Research Highlights

Upcoming Corporate & Strategic Access

  • BespokeTrip: Global Consumer Clients Trip in Delhi and Mumbai (May 2024)
  • NDRs: FSN Ecommerce Management in USA (June 2024). Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail in USA. Zomato in USA.
  • Bus Tours: Retail Tour in Delhi (Sep 2024). Feet on street tour in Delhi (Sep 2024). Consumer Internet tour in Delhi (Sep 2024). Rural Tour in Delhi (Sep 2024). Consumption tour in Varanasi, Lucknow (Feb 2024).

Michael Simotas

Naveed Fazal Bawa

Michael leads Consumer Equity Research with coverage of Retail, Food & Beverage and Petroleum Refiner/ Marketer stocks. Prior to this, he spent >12 years as an Equity Analyst at a bulge bracket investment bank, initially covering Healthcare and later covering Consumer where he was highly rated by institutional clients.

Consumer Discretionary

What I am Known For

  • More than 12 years experience covering discretionary retail and practical experience in the retail industry.
  • Consistent top 3 ratings across key institutional surveys
  • A solid track record of identifying turning points in the overall industry and individual companies.
  • Deep and broad network of industry contacts across the value chain.
  • A track record of successful counter-consensus stock recommendations based on detailed analysis and channel checks.

How I am Different

  • DMP: Counter-consensus underperform rating premised on 1) needing to cycle the COVID benefit; 2) investment required in Australia ; and 3) inflationary impost.
  • FLT: Identified the balance sheet issue early – c. 2 months before an emergency, highly dilutive equity issuance when much of the market was comfortable and the share price was high. Had a strong negative view that despite the demand recovery, profitability would remain poor due to commission pressure, cost growth and adverse mix.
  • Household savings analysis: Our analysis of national accounts data highlighted large household savings balances, supporting continued consumption.

Key Research Highlights

Corporate & Strategic Access

  • Miami Consumer Conference (Nov 2023)
  • Asia Forum – Hong Kong (March 2024)
  • Numerous expert calls, meetings & site visits (retailers, suppliers, landlords)

Consumer Staples

What I am Known For

  • >12 years experience covering Australian Consumer Staples
  • Consistent top 3 ratings across key institutional surveys.
  • Solid track record of identifying turning points in the overall industry and individual companies.
  • Deep and broad network of industry contacts and proprietary data across the value chain.

How I am Different

  • Supermarkets: Proprietary 12 year time series of supermarket pricing which has a consistent track record of identifying turning points in inflation and pricing relativities.
  • EDV: Only major broker to initiate coverage on the date of demerger and we maintained a non-consensus Buy rating at the time.
  • TWE: Our discussions with a network of industry contacts, analysis of export data and peer comparable analysis highlighted the business’ early success in reallocating wine from China, as well as the improving execution in the US.

Key Research Highlights

Corporate & Strategic Access

  • Miami Consumer Conference (November 2023)
  • Asia Forum – Hong Kong (March 2024)
  • Numerous expert calls, meetings & site visits (wine distributors, wine competitors, supermarket operators, pub & gaming operators)

Oil & Gas

What I am Known For

  • Deep understanding of the Refining/Marketing industry and have covered Viva Energy since the IPO.
  • A decade of experience covering retail, including the refiner/marketers’ retail partners which has facilitated stress testing of their retail strategies.
  • Deep network of industry contacts.
  • Regular, detailed analysis of publicly-available refining and retail margin drivers.

How I am Different

  • Refiner Marketer Weekly – Real-time analysis of high frequency refining and retail margins (including for New Zealand) as well as industry volumes data.
  • Minimum stockholding obligation (MSO) analysis – The first team to recognize and quantify the benefit from the competitive advantage provided
  • ALD & VEA: Despite recent weakness in regional refining margins, we like ALD & VEA given strong performance in the higher multiple marketing business with the industry remaining highly rational and benefiting from strong retail margins. In refining, we remain positive on the long-term outlook, given the global supply shortfall.

Key Research Highlights

Corporate & Strategic Access

  • Asia Forum (March 2024)
  • Numerous expert calls

Prateek Kumar

Prateek Kumar covers Industrials and Travel & Tourism sectors at Jefferies India and has over 15 years of experience in Institutional equities. He joined Jefferies India in April of 2022 following seven years as a senior analyst covering Cement, Transportation and Internet sector at Antique Stock Broking (India). Prior to that he has worked with Religare Capital Markets and JP Morgan India. He began his equity research career in 2008, and has covered the Cement, Transportation, Automotive, FMCG and Internet sectors in the past.

Industrials

What I am Known For

  • Strong insights on Long-term trends in the sector, Industry understanding through-the-cycle trading and valuation.
  • Regular Channel checks to keep abreast with on-ground situation
  • Initiated coverage on Adani Enterprise

How I am Different

  • Detailed work across the large and small Companies in the Cement sector
  • Consistency in on ground channel Checks
  • Superior focus on thematic research, covering a range of structural trends and differentiated primary research.

Key Research Highlights

Upcoming Corporate & Strategic Access

  • Ambuja Cement Access Day in Mumbai
  • Shree Cement Access Day in Mumbai
  • Ultratech Access in US/SFO
  • India Access Day (Adani Enterprises, Ultratech, Ambuja, Grasim)

Consumer Discretionary

What I am Known For

  • Strong research inputs on Industry trends on both Hotels and Airlines
  • Multiple channel checks at regular intervals.
  • Initiated coverage on GMR Airports. Strong followup research on GMR Airports – limited coverage on street

How I am Different

  • Detailed Initiating Coverage report on Indian Hotels
  • Authored several thematic reports on emerging trends
  • Strong Research inputs on Airport sector

Key Research Highlights

Upcoming Corporate & Strategic Access

  • GMR Airports Access in US/Asia
  • IHCL Access in US
  • India Access Day (GMR Airports, IndiGo, Indian Hotels, TBO Tek, Samhi Hotels, Ixigo, Lemon Tree Hotels)

John Chou

John Chou has 10 years of experience in equity research, focusing on greater China consumer discretionary (sporting goods and home appliances). In his previous role at Deutsche Bank he contributed to the team’s performance in StarMine and the Institutional Investor polls. John holds a bachelor degree from National Taiwan University.

What I am Known For

  • A focus on growth drivers, earnings quality, FCF and ROIC.
  • Long-term industry knowledge and historical modeling, informing views on stocks ‘weather-the-cycle’ trading and valuation.
  • Update investors with latest industry/market trends and key fundamental implications via channel checks.

How I am Different

  • Anta (2020 HK, Hold)
    Expect (1) Markdown pressure in 4Q24, (2) Intensifying competition as NKE and ADS starts destocking, (3) Anta brand: Cannibalization from “Super Anta”, and (4) Fila brand’s intense fashion risks.
  • Wuliangye (000858 CH, Underperform):
    Expect (1) more margin downturn for WLY distributors due to weaker consumer stimulus and WLY inflating ex-factory prices (higher cost for distributors), (2) distributors to sell significant inventory to PDD.com ahead of the D-11 to replenish liquidity.
  • Midea (000333 CH, Buy):
    We like Midea’s prudent control of channel inventory. Expect it to nimbly adjusting toward value-for-money products using new channels like Mei-Cloud. KUKA’s recent repositioning is also reaching completion

Key Research Highlights

Upcoming Corporate & Strategic Access

  • Conferences: YUMC, Prada, CTF, Budweiser, Miniso at Jefferies Asia Forum (Mar 2024), CTF (May 2024), Samsonite (Jul 2024), CRB (Aug 2024) Hengan (Aug 2024), Miniso (Sept 2024),
  • Expert events: Post National GW expert call series on shopping mall, gold & jewelry, Macau gaming, restaurants etc. (Oct 2024), China Consumer Day: Updates before China Food and Drinks Fair (Oct 2024), Pop toy industry update call (Sept 2024)

Lisa Liao

Lisa Liao is a Senior Associate at the Research Division of Jefferies Hong Kong Limited. Prior to joining Jefferies, she was a Research Associate at Deutsche Bank Hong Kong and ICBC International. She graduated with a Bachelor degree in Economics from Peking University, and an M.S. degree in Finance from the Chinese University of Hong Kong. She passed all three levels of the CFA Program and is a FRM charterholder.

What I am Known For

  • An approach to stock ratings focusing on FCF.
  • A focus on growth drivers, earnings quality, financial health and consumer behaviour changes.

How I am Different

  • DPC (1405 HK, Buy)
    Positive view on Domino’s Pizza expansion in China, especially in new T1 and T2 cities, with solid branding and local team, supported by growing penetration of pizza market and delivery channel.
  • Nongfu Spring (9633 HK, Hold)
    Despite NF’s clarifications after the social media attack in Mar, and market share recovery in Jul-Aug, the negative impacts may sustain for a while and water recovery would take time. In our model, tea drinks are a key driver for sales and earnings in 2024-25E.

Key Research Highlights

Upcoming Corporate & Strategic Access

  • Conferences: YUMC, Prada, CTF, Budweiser, Miniso at Jefferies Asia Forum (Mar 2024), CTF (May 2024), Samsonite (Jul 2024), CRB (Aug 2024) Hengan (Aug 2024), Miniso (Sept 2024),
  • Expert events: Post National GW expert call series on shopping mall, gold & jewelry, Macau gaming, restaurants etc. (Oct 2024), China Consumer Day: Updates before China Food and Drinks Fair (Oct 2024), Pop toy industry update call (Sept 2024)