Tommaso Castello joined the team in 2023. Before joining Jefferies, he had worked as a mechanical engineer in the steel industry and pursued an MBA from Judge Business School.
Cole Hathorn joined Jefferies in 2014, following several years of financial services experience across various roles in investment management, advisory, risk and audit. He is a chartered accountant CA(SA), and CFA charter holder. Cole now leads the European Steel coverage along with the European Forestry, Paper & Packaging coverage.

What We Are Known For

• Value over volume: European steelmakers are going through a period full of changes and uncertainties. Starting from an overall European flat demand, the continuing issues in the Chinese construction industry and the crackdown on cutting CO2 emissions, we see EU steel producers increasingly focusing on value over volumes. Given the steepening of the cost curve due to the incremental cost of having to purchase CO2 allowances, we expect those lower-cost producers that can credibly decarbonise to be relative winners in the EU.
• Expert calls, seminar and conferences: We host and participate in events, congresses and conferences with industry experts regarding topics such as CBAM implementation, trade tariffs, import/export quotas, and decarbonisation projects, to help provide investors with useful insights from a different perspective and differentiate our stock recommendations.
  Decarbonization & capex needs in Europe: The steel industry accounts for 5-6% of CO2 emissions in Europe and environmental regulations are increasingly requiring steel companies to decarbonize or buy CO2. The free EU ETS allocation will decline from 2026 and will be phased out to zero by 2034. The ruling out of free carbon allocations will be accompanied by the implementation of CBAM (Carbon Border Adjusted Mechanism), a European policy aimed to level the playing field by imposing a carbon tax on steel products imported from countries without or with lower carbon taxes.
• We see implications not only for steel producers but also smaller distributor service centers that might not be able to afford or manage regulatory costs/admin of importing steel and switch to domestic European steel suppliers. And for the steel companies, increasingly relevant is the capex needs to decarbonize, the implications for balance sheets, FCF generation and capital returns.